Helena Muir, Principal, Heidrick & Struggles.
Under the IEA’s current policies scenario, global oil demand could increase from 100 mb/d in 2024 to 105 mb/d by 2035 and potentially rise further towards 2050. For more than a decade, the global energy conversation has been framed around a smooth and irreversible transition from hydrocarbons to renewables. But the reality is proving far more complex.
Global energy demand continues to rise, driven by artificial intelligence, data centres and industrial growth, while oil demand continues to exceed expectations. Recent inaccurate predictions around demand highlight how confirmation bias has become a strategic risk. Avoiding that bias is now a core test for CEOs across the energy sector.
Analysis from Heidrick & Struggles shows we are not witnessing a transition in the conventional sense, but entering an era of energy addition, where every viable form of power is being layered urgently on top of the last. The challenge now facing the sector is navigating expansion, uncertainty and structural demand growth all at once. Geopolitical, macroeconomic, infrastructural and technological forces have always defined this industry and have been part of the decision-making process for CEOs. What is different now is the cost of misreading the combination of forces at play. CEOs who do so risk mis-investing billions and losing their organisation’s place within the global economy.
Energy abundance as strategic advantage
AI is fundamentally reshaping electricity demand. Data centres already account for 1.5% of global electricity consumption, a share that is growing rapidly as digital infrastructure scales. Regions capable of providing reliable, abundant power are becoming magnets for the next generation of technological development, and energy companies are increasingly the ones determining where that development lands.
For energy CEOs, this reframes the stakes around generation capacity, grid investment and long-term supply decisions. But while grid investment will take years to materialise at scale, the opportunity behind the meter is more immediate. On-site generation, battery storage, microgrids and power purchase agreements are already allowing energy companies to partner directly with data centres and large industrial users while bypassing grid constraints and capturing demand that cannot wait. These choices, in both the long and the short term, will shape the geography of the digital economy.
Capabilities shaping the next energy cycle
The energy industry has never lacked capital, technology or geological advantage. What it has periodically lacked is clarity, both in reading external forces and in understanding what is shaping its own decisions. Four capabilities are now defining effective leadership in the sector.
Agility has become a genuine source of advantage. Spare capacity policy can shift over a weekend, geopolitical tensions can disrupt supply routes overnight, and regulatory frameworks can turn on a single election. The modern energy CEO must combine long-term conviction with tactical flexibility, able to change course quickly without losing strategic direction.
The activist mindset must be internalised. Activist investors have reshaped expectations around capital discipline and returns, but the most resilient energy companies are now embedding that discipline themselves, through continuous portfolio reviews, strict return thresholds and proactive consolidation.
Strategic integration has moved from desirable to essential. Operational excellence matters, but it is no longer sufficient on its own. AI demand, geopolitics, supply chains and energy policy are deeply interconnected, and effective leaders must be able to join those signals and act before the curve shifts beneath them.
Finally, foresight must replace faith in forecasts. In a world where projections have repeatedly underestimated the pace of change, the leaders who succeed will be those willing to challenge assumptions, stress-test alternative scenarios and prepare for outcomes that diverge from the consensus.
Board oversight in an uncertain energy future
If the CEO mandate is changing, board oversight must keep pace. Traditional performance metrics were built for a more stable environment. They are poorly suited to a system shaped by technological disruption, geopolitical volatility and chronic demand misforecasting.
Experience shows that the leaders who navigate turbulent periods most effectively share three traits: realism, humility and the ability to anticipate how shifts, whether in tariffs, technology or trade flows, may reshape markets faster than expected.
For boards, this means rethinking both how they select and how they evaluate CEOs. Succession candidates need to be stress-tested across different scenarios, from surging AI power demand to prolonged hydrocarbon resilience to geopolitical disruption. The central question is straightforward: can this person lead through complexity without losing direction?
In an industry that powers modern life, that quality of leadership is a baseline requirement.
This article appeared in the April 2026 issue of Energy Manager magazine. Subscribe here.
